This market tracks the official occurrence of a recession in the United States in 2025 or 2026, defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Despite concerns regarding geopolitical instability following the conflict in Iran, the U.S. economy demonstrated resilience in early 2026, with GDP growing at a positive annualized rate in Q1 2026, following a positive expansion in Q4 2025. Market focus remains on whether subsequent quarters can maintain this momentum amidst inflationary pressures and potential energy price volatility.