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Geopolitical tensions and diplomatic engagements involving Iran significantly impact the security environment and shipping confidence in the Strait of Hormuz, affecting transit volumes.
The broader diplomatic and geopolitical environment, including relations with other world powers and regional stability, will heavily influence the likelihood and terms of any deal.
Actions or statements by major world powers (e.g., United States, European Union, Saudi Arabia) regarding Iran's current regime or potential support for opposition groups could significantly influence the likelihood of a leadership change.